Rebels advance on Chad capital, regional crisis expands

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Over the past few days the major news outlets have been reporting on a scary development in East Africa: the government of Idriss Deby is increasingly threatened as a coalition of rebels advances on the Chadian capital, N'Djamena. Deby isn't the most democratic of leaders in Africa. He rose to power in a coup in 1990. For a long time Chad has been very poor and as with countries like this, rumors of corruption and abuse dog Deby. Deby's power has been threatened periodically through the years, and this latest crisis just may be the most serious yet.

I don't know enough about Deby and Chad to say whether it's a good thing or a bad thing for him to be removed from power. But what I can say is that political turmoil in Chad is fueled in part by the horrible 'conflict' just across the border in Darfur, Sudan (see map above). Similarly, the conflict in Darfur is made all the worse by political instability and insurgency from Chad. One of the main ethnic groups being assaulted in Darfur is the Zaghawa, from which Deby himself hails. Part of the coalition of rebels advancing on the capital are directly related to Deby and claim he isn't doing enough to help the victims in Darfur.

The history of Chad and Sudan is complicated and has been intertwined for decades (or centuries). In Sudan, northern ethnic groups who fancy themselves "ethnically Arab" hold power and have generally been oppressive of "African" tribes (although both groups are far more ethnically related than either cares to admit). In Chad you have the opposite, Deby comes from an "African" tribe and has held power for some time. Both nations have spent decades fighting their own respective rebellions, and both have accused the other of supporting the respective insurgencies.

Recently tensions between the two countries have been cooled. However the cross-border ethnic relationships and political instability in both countries have meant that things are never particularly stable. The Chad/Sudan region is a bit of a pressure cooker and a development or change of status quo in one area almost always has repercussions across the border.

The developments in Chad are themselves very important. But the broader ramifications are significant as well. If Deby's government falls, what does it mean for the people of Darfur, or the ethnic groups such as the Zaghawa which are divided in half by an arbitrarily decided national boundary? What will this mean for Sudan and the ugly government of "president" Omar Al-Bashir?

Observers and commentators on the genocide in Darfur have long warned that wider instability and suffering in the region is a possibility. The complex ethnic, military and political relationships that exist between these two, and other, nations mean that these conflicts could easily explode into wide regional crisis, which would mean suffering and death for the common civilians on an even larger scale.

Stay tuned.